We combined a wealth of historical paid search trend data with the planting behavior data provided by our client, as well as average temperature data, to develop a strategy to increase bids in states that start reaching the temperature thresholds. Since the higher temperatures translate to higher conversion rates, we consistently see improved efficiency.
We look at several sources to determine average temperature. One resource gives us the monthly average temperature by state over the last 30 years, and another gives a monthly forecast of the regions expected to be warmer or cooler than average. For example, when Oregon is forecasted to be warmer than average in March, we increase bid modifiers during that month even though the average temperature is typically around 44 degrees.