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Geo-Targeting Based On
Weather Patterns

Background

Gardener’s Supply Company has a highly seasonal business cycle, with the largest peaks occurring from March through May. In paid search, we began to notice a consistent, strong correlation between revenue spikes and temperature increases across the U.S. in the spring. Looking at revenue and order data from previous years, we were able to identify the temperature thresholds of southern states—those reaching the mid-70s to low-80s—at which initial revenue spikes tend to occur, followed by a more sustained increase when northern states reach the 50s and 60s.

By analyzing valuable data on planting behavior provided to us by Gardener’s—such as the temperatures at which various regions start preparing to grow certain plants—we were able to validate further the correlation between temperature increases and revenue. 

Using the multi-year geographic temperature trends, combined with our seasonal response patterns helped us shift from having an action plan based on data. We've heard many promises about breakthroughs based on combining these types of data, but Adlucent delivered results that have extended beyond PPC efficiency.
- Joe McHugh
Director of Online Marketing
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Our Approach

We combined a wealth of historical paid search trend data with the planting behavior data provided by our client, as well as average temperature data, to develop a strategy to increase bids in states that start reaching the temperature thresholds. Since the higher temperatures translate to higher conversion rates, we consistently see improved efficiency. 

We look at several sources to determine average temperature. One resource gives us the monthly average temperature by state over the last 30 years, and another gives a monthly forecast of the regions expected to be warmer or cooler than average. For example, when Oregon is forecasted to be warmer than average in March, we increase bid modifiers during that month even though the average temperature is typically around 44 degrees.

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